Friday 4 May 2012

how to lie with statistics

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Since statistics is not a subject that I am particularly well educated in, I have chosen to read this book, with hopes of becoming more knowledgeable. From what I have read so far, I have learned about the drastic effects of hidden biases in taking “random” samples for studies. The example regarding the annual salaries of Yale graduates was particularly interesting. The author writes with a bitter and satirical tone, which I find amusing and supplementary to the book’s point. I have noticed that the monetary figures seem out of date, and the fact that this book was first published in 154, is a good explanation. I suppose that as I continue to read, I will have to keep this in mind. I wish there was a currency exchange chart to show the difference from 154 to 00, due to inflation. The illustrations in this book are very mocking and humorous, and I look forward to continuing my reading!


Chapter


August 4, 00





As I continue, my eighth grade algebra skills are returning to me! I find it fascinating that using different types of “averages” (mean, median, mode) can greatly alter the specifics of studies. I always knew that the three averages were different in many cases, but I never took the time to think about how companies can use this to their advantage. When I read something that states an “average”, I usually assume it to be true (if it comes from a reliable source). I don’t think to myself “Is it mean, median, or mode?” The picture chart on page , depicting the number of workers receiving certain salaries, is very easy to follow very precise. I don’t have any questions so far, since I find this book very simple to comprehend.


Chapter


August 4, 00


This book continues to amaze me, for I have personally been fooled by some of the statistics explained here. I am now much more aware of the imprecision of studies and claims with broad statements and crucial missing figures. I like how the author sued the example of flipping ten coins to demonstrate the varying results, which is the same as medicinal trials, such as the Doakes’ toothpaste situation. I cannot believe that I fall into such advertising traps, as do millions of other Americans. I have realized that few “scientific studies” include probability and range, making their claims worthless. I found the passage on Gesell’s norms to be amusing, since I personally know mothers who have been seriously distressed because their children were not “up to par”. I’ve noticed a few typos on page 46, and it bothers me that such a popular book has been in print for decades, yet it still has grammatical mistakes! The example of “missing numbers” on advertising charts, especially on the back of cereal boxes, is definitely something that I have noticed. I often see charts with no labeling, which makes them of no value. This book is simple, yet informative, and I am enjoying it very much!


Chapter 4


August 5, 00


This chapter was very brief, yet informative. I found it very interesting to read about yet another way that one can “lie with statistics”. I find it frustrating that companies advertise their products with veritable and supportable facts, yet still have ways of displaying these facts in favor of their own profit. This reminds me that often it is not what the information is that counts, but rather how it is presented. These chapters are so short that I don’t want to keep stopping to journal every few minutes! This book is really great, and I am learning valuable and useful information.


Chapter 5


August 5, 00


This chapter was not very shocking, because I know how easy it is to lie with a graph! If one does not carefully analyze the numbers and put them into perspective, a picture can present misleading information. All of the specific examples used by Darrell Huff, must have taken much time to research and collect, and this topic must be of great interest to him! I am finding myself more and more drawn into this piece, because I can relate the examples to my everyday life, and I have had firsthand encounters with some of the “lies” described on these very pages!


Chapter 6


August 5, 00


This chapter was even better than the last one. Pictographs are very appealing to the human eye, because they visualize and materialize numbers, to present information in a favorable fashion. Although the statistics are true, they are represented in a deceiving manner. I think that the example regarding the salaries of the American and the Rotundian citizen, was especially interesting. I like how the author first shows a way to alter the graph/picture very little, and then the graph begins to drastically change. I think that this book is multi-faceted, because it incorporates math, statistics, society, sarcasm, and humor all into a few chapters. I am not confused at all, and I am enjoying the straightforward and precise manner in which the information is displayed.


Chapter 7


August 6, 00


Although I am continuing to enjoy learning about how society is fooled by seemingly accurate statistics, I feel like some things are getting repetitive. However, there are so many types of statistics, as well as ways to lie with them, that someone could write volumes upon volumes on this subject. I have taken note that although companies use misleading information to sell their products, nonprofit organizations also use these tactics, and I think that they do it to appeal to the general public. The example regarding politics makes me realize that “statistics” used in campaign promises, and in favor of political figures, are also most likely ‘altered’. I don’t know what to believe anymore! I have personally noticed how advertisements have disingenuous “before and after” pictures. Often, in the “before” photo, the model/object is purposely made to appear unattractive, yet in the “after” picture, they look dazzling, due to lighting, color, positioning, etc. I am almost done with this book, and I can honestly say that I am learning many new things. I feel ignorant; how could I have fallen for these gimmicks? I guess that’s how companies make their money!


Chapter 8


Chapter 6, 00


This chapter was particularly worthy of note, because I found it remarkable how cause and effect can be so easily confused and intermingled. I have noticed that the author often uses examples regarding cigarettes and smokers. Perhaps this has something to do with the fact that at the time the first edition was published, general awareness about the health ramifications of smoking was increasing. The author refers to the word “post hoc”, and I understand that it deals with cause and effect, but I do not understand what the word’s origin is, or its exact definition. The example about the lice in connection to the health of the New Herbrides was very informative, and the illustration is very creative and humorous. I wonder what other types of statistical dishonesty the author will next explore!


Chapter


August 6, 00


As the book nears the end, I find it to be a bit repetitive again, but it still intrigues me. The visual depiction of the shading of the American map is very starling and effective in conveying the point that the author is trying to convey. I found the example regarding the Russell Sage Foundation and the average yearly salary of $5004, to be very amusing. The sarcastic tone that the author writes in, as well as the dramatic illustration, is very effective. At first, I was a bit confused when I read about the complex arithmetic that Karl Marx was responsible for, but when I realized that it was a “scam”, I felt relieved! Certain statistics just “don’t make sense”, such as advertisements claiming 40% discounts, etc. This book has taught me that if a statistic does not make sense, that it isn’t remarkable, but rather just isn’t true! Exaggeration plays a large part in lying through statistics, as well as deception through percentages and interest. I have learned to be much more careful and to be less gullible. I feel so naïve after reading about the many ways that one can be tricked! The illustration of the woman with an eggbeater (at the end of the chapter), further demonstrates what I noted earlier, about how presentation and display play a large part in fooling the public, regarding statistics. Even using different vocabulary, such as “economical” versus “cheap” and “light” versus “flimsy”, can make a world of difference.


Chapter 10


August 7, 00


The author did a good job of finishing up this book, by informing the reader how to defend oneself from the hoards of false statistics, and which questions to ask oneself when presented with “facts”. Mr. Huff did a commendable job of summarizing the main points of his argument throughout the book, and brought it to an admirable closing. I thought that his explanation of sources with “O.K.” names was especially noteworthy. I have personally noticed that companies use prominent names and figures to further the success of their advertising techniques. He brings up the point that omission is a common type of lie achieved by using statistics, and I will definitely take heed of this information! I also found noteworthy the “fact” that men and women only bathed 1- times a week, around the time of this book’s publication. Even if these numbers are slightly off, it reminds me how much our world has changed since then, and how much new technology has bettered our lives. I really enjoyed the last section of the book, titled “Does it make sense?” The author had brought up this point in an earlier chapter, but I think that it is important to emphasize this. If a statistic seems unlikely or “too good to be true”, it probably is! There are so many ways to mangle information through statistics that I do not know what to trust anymore! I can also relate to something else found in this chapter how companies use overly precise figures to trick the public into believing their statistics to be veritable. However, in reality, such exact calculations only diminish the value of statistics, since it is impossible to be so accurate in the broad field of statistics. I honestly loved this book, and I will use the priceless information that I have obtained, to help me to be more prudent in my everyday life.





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